TyCuS

Leyendo por 2+2 me encontré este curioso hilo (el cual estoy leyendo ahora):
Lets prove that PokerStars is rigged - Two Plus Two Poker Forum


Hi all,
Since I've finally finished the PokerStars version of PokerStat, I had
someone send me their hand statistics. I don't have this many hand
histories, so these aren't my statistics, but the statistics are
anonymous. I also have permission to post these, so, anyways, here
they are, hopefully these, along with statistics for card
distributions from Paradise Poker and TruePoker which I've posted in
the past, will be read by some of the conspiracy theorists! Of course,
these stats doesn't mean there isn't cheating due to collusion going
on, or that there could still be situational rigging of the deal (two
strong hands against each other). It just means that people who
complain that "my four flushes don't make it" or that "Aces flop more
often than they should when I have AK" can now see that the
distribution is normal, and that players make their hands at normal
rates (expected number of pairs, 2 pairs, flushes, straights, etc).

- Tony

Starting cards:

Total hands you were dealt cards: 125852

All suited starters dealt: 29595 (23.52%)
All suited starters expected: 29612 (23.5%)

All connected starters dealt: 19493 (15.49%)
All connected starters expected: 19741 (15.7%)

Suited connector starters dealt: 4837 (3.84%)
Suited connector starters expected: 4935 (3.92%)

Paired starters dealt: 7364 (5.851%)
Paired starters expected: 7403 (5.88%)

AKo dealt: 1202 (0.955%)
AKo expected: 1139 (0.905%)

AKs dealt: 373 (0.296%)
AKs expected: 380 (0.302%)

Any AK dealt: 1575 (1.251%)
Any AK expected: 1519 (1.21%)

A's dealt: 603 (0.479%)
K's dealt: 543 (0.431%)
Q's dealt: 558 (0.443%)
J's dealt: 551 (0.438%)
T's dealt: 546 (0.434%)
9's dealt: 585 (0.465%)
8's dealt: 568 (0.451%)
7's dealt: 597 (0.474%)
6's dealt: 542 (0.431%)
5's dealt: 532 (0.423%)
4's dealt: 603 (0.479%)
3's dealt: 582 (0.462%)
2's dealt: 554 (0.440%)
Each pair expected: 569 (0.452%)

(Note that only data for hands where a flop was dealt and you
were dealt cards preflop are used. Hands where no flop was dealt
are skipped.)

Total hands you were dealt cards: 125852
Times a flop dealt when you were dealt cards: 80610 (64.05%)

When user dealt AK, flops at least one A or K: 346 (33.11%)
expected: 339 (32.4%)



USER HAS ANY TWO SUITED CARDS (dealt 19446 times):

Using both user's hole cards, flopped a:
3 flush: 8164 (41.98%) expected: 8087 (41.6%)
4 flush: 2226 (11.45%) expected: 2128 (10.9%)
5 flush: 147 (0.76%) expected: 164 (0.842%)

Three cards on the flop make up a:
3 straight: 612 (3.15%) expected: 620 (3.18%)
2 flush: 10728 (55.17%) expected: 10718 (55.1%)
3 flush: 981 (5.04%) expected: 1015 (05.22%)
any pair: 3303 (16.99%) expected: 3292 (16.9%)

Hand user flops:
High card: 10257 (52.7%) expected: 10233 (52.6%)
Pair: 7868 (40.5%) expected: 7858 (40.4%)
Two pair: 757 (3.89%) expected: 786 (4.04%)
3 of a kind: 302 (1.55%) expected: 306 (1.57%)
Straight: 97 (0.50%) expected: 80 (0.412%)
Flush: 147 (0.76%) expected: 162 (0.835%)
Full house: 15 (0.077%) expected: 18 (0.0918%)
Four of a kind: 3 (0.015%) expected: 2 (0.0102%)
Straight flush: 0 (0.000%) expected: 1 (0.00589%)
Royal flush: 0 (0.000%) expected: 0 (0.000654%)



USER HAS ANY PAIR (dealt 5218 times):

Using both user's hole cards, flopped a:
Underpair (to flop): 1224 (23.46%) expected: 1225 (23.5%)
Overpair (to flop): 1215 (23.28%) expected: 1225 (23.5%)
Set: 647 (12.40%) expected: 601 (11.51%)
Quads: 5 (0.096%) expected: 13 (0.245%)

Three cards on the flop make up a:
3 straight: 168 (3.22%) expected: 166 (3.18%)
2 flush: 2860 (54.81%) expected: 2872 (55.0%)
3 flush: 305 (5.85%) expected: 269 (5.16%)
any pair: 896 (17.17%) expected: 895 (17.1%)

Hand user flops:
High card: 0 (0.0%) expected: 0 (0.00%)
Pair: 3707 (71.0%) expected: 3748 (71.8%)
Two pair: 841 (16.12%) expected: 843 (16.2%)
3 of a kind: 597 (11.44%) expected: 562 (10.8%)
Straight: 0 (0.00%) expected: 0 (0.00%)
Flush: 0 (0.00%) expected: 0 (0.00%)
Full house: 68 (1.303%) expected: 51 (0.980%)
Four of a kind: 5 (0.096%) expected: 13 (0.245%)
Straight flush: 0 (0.000%) expected: 0 (0.00%)
Royal flush: 0 (0.000%) expected: 0 (0.00%)



USER HAS OFFSUIT CONNECTORS FROM 54o to JTo (dealt 5026 times):

Using both user's hole cards, flopped a:
Open ended: 414 (8.24%) expected: 430 (8.55%)
Double belly: 24 (0.48%) expected: 27 (0.531%)
Straight: 70 (1.39%) expected: 63 (1.26%)

Three cards on the flop make up a:
3 straight: 180 (3.58%) expected: 158 (3.15%)
2 flush: 2804 (55.79%) expected: 2766 (55.0%)
3 flush: 259 (5.15%) expected: 260 (5.16%)
any pair: 852 (16.95%) expected: 851 (16.9%)

Hand user flops:
High card: 2641 (52.5%) expected: 2646 (52.6%)
Pair: 2025 (40.3%) expected: 2031 (40.4%)
Two pair: 200 (3.98%) expected: 203 (4.04%)
3 of a kind: 87 (1.73%) expected: 79 (1.57%)
Straight: 72 (1.43%) expected: 62 (1.23%)
Flush: 0 (0.00%) expected: 0 (0.00%)
Full house: 1 (0.020%) expected: 5 (0.0918%)
Four of a kind: 0 (0.000%) expected: 1 (0.0102%)
Straight flush: 0 (0.000%) expected: 0 (0.00%)
Royal flush: 0 (0.000%) expected: 0 (0.00%)



ALL FLOPS SEEN BY THE USER:

Three cards on the flop make up a:
3 straight: 2630 (3.26%) expected: 2568 (3.19%)
2 flush: 44329 (54.99%) expected: 44383 (55.1%)
3 flush: 4176 (5.18%) expected: 4173 (5.18%)
any pair: 13699 (16.99%) expected: 13656 (16.9%)

Hand user flops:
High card: 40153 (49.8%) expected: 40400 (50.1%)
Pair: 34179 (42.4%) expected: 34063 (42.3%)
Two pair: 3863 (4.79%) expected: 3832 (4.75%)
3 of a kind: 1770 (2.20%) expected: 1703 (2.11%)
Straight: 357 (0.44%) expected: 316 (0.392%)
Flush: 147 (0.18%) expected: 158 (0.197%)
Full house: 131 (0.163%) expected: 116 (0.144%)
Four of a kind: 10 (0.012%) expected: 19 (0.0240%)
Straight flush: 0 (0.000%) expected: 1 (0.00139%)
Royal flush: 0 (0.000%) expected: 0 (0.000154%)

(Note that only data for hands where a river was dealt and you
were dealt cards preflop are used. Hands where no river was dealt
are skipped.)

Total hands you were dealt cards: 125852

Total final boards seen when you were dealt cards: 44325



USER HAS ANY TWO SUITED CARDS (dealt 10628 times):

Four flushes flopped: 1262 (11.87%) expected: 1163 (10.9%)
When flop four flush, got flush: 464 (36.77%) expected: 441 (35.0%)

Hand user has at river:
High card: 1871 (17.6%) expected: 1852 (17.4%)
Pair: 4465 (42.0%) expected: 4532 (42.6%)
Two pair: 2290 (21.55%) expected: 2349 (22.1%)
3 of a kind: 463 (4.36%) expected: 461 (4.33%)
Straight: 494 (4.65%) expected: 484 (4.56%)
Flush: 786 (7.40%) expected: 692 (6.51%)
Full house: 236 (2.221%) expected: 236 (2.22%)
Four of a kind: 15 (0.141%) expected: 13 (0.126%)
Straight flush: 7 (0.066%) expected: 7 (0.0663%)
Royal flush: 1 (0.009%) expected: 1 (0.00781%)



USER HAS ANY PAIR (dealt 3264 times):

A set flopped: 470 (14.40%) expected: 368 (11.3%)

When flop set, got boat or quads: 153 (32.55%)
expected: 157 (33.4%)

Hand user has at river:
High card: 0 (0.0%) expected: 0 (0.00%)
Pair: 1126 (34.5%) expected: 1158 (35.5%)
Two pair: 1253 (38.39%) expected: 1290 (39.5%)
3 of a kind: 435 (13.33%) expected: 383 (11.7%)
Straight: 45 (1.38%) expected: 62 (1.90%)
Flush: 63 (1.93%) expected: 64 (1.95%)
Full house: 316 (9.681%) expected: 279 (8.54%)
Four of a kind: 26 (0.797%) expected: 27 (0.842%)
Straight flush: 0 (0.000%) expected: 1 (0.0160%)
Royal flush: 0 (0.000%) expected: 0 (0.00182%)



USER HAS OFFSUIT CONNECTORS FROM 54o to JTo (dealt 2655 times):

Flopped open ended: 244 (9.19%) expected: 227 (8.55%)

When open ended, got straight: 69 (28.28%) expected: 75 (30.7%)

Hand user has at river:
High card: 445 (16.8%) expected: 457 (17.2%)
Pair: 1140 (42.9%) expected: 1135 (42.7%)
Two pair: 561 (21.13%) expected: 591 (22.3%)
3 of a kind: 112 (4.22%) expected: 115 (4.35%)
Straight: 259 (9.76%) expected: 242 (9.12%)
Flush: 60 (2.26%) expected: 52 (1.95%)
Full house: 72 (2.712%) expected: 59 (2.22%)
Four of a kind: 5 (0.188%) expected: 3 (0.126%)
Straight flush: 1 (0.038%) expected: 1 (0.0209%)
Royal flush: 0 (0.000%) expected: 0 (0.00110%)



ALL RIVERS SEEN BY THE USER:

Hand user has at river:
High card: 7614 (17.2%) expected: 7718 (17.4%)
Pair: 19268 (43.5%) expected: 19424 (43.8%)
Two pair: 10327 (23.30%) expected: 10414 (23.5%)
3 of a kind: 2271 (5.12%) expected: 2141 (4.83%)
Straight: 2095 (4.73%) expected: 2048 (4.62%)
Flush: 1468 (3.31%) expected: 1341 (3.03%)
Full house: 1195 (2.696%) expected: 1151 (2.60%)
Four of a kind: 74 (0.167%) expected: 74 (0.168%)
Straight flush: 12 (0.027%) expected: 12 (0.0279%)
Royal flush: 1 (0.002%) expected: 1 (0.00323%)
Four to a flush on board 2042 (4.607%) expected: 1902 (4.29%)



Fuente: Analysis of 100,000+ hands dealt at PokerStars - rec.gambling.poker | Google Groups

__________________

www.tycusin.es Find the tycuStars in you


Mi mamá dice que tonto es el que hace tonterías. Forrest Gump

pikatoteles

Ainsss...Qué bonita es la probabilidad

__________________
"I find that the harder I work, the more luck I seem to have"

nepundo

Cuando se cumple.

__________________
bolutron: quitate eso de la firma capullo cabezon!
Mister Jose: saliovolandolabarraespaiadoraynolaencuentroahorame levantoaversilaveo,menudamierda

TyCuS

a favor

__________________

www.tycusin.es Find the tycuStars in you


Mi mamá dice que tonto es el que hace tonterías. Forrest Gump

pikatoteles

Y a la larga se cumple ¿o no?

__________________
"I find that the harder I work, the more luck I seem to have"

zen-poker

Desafortunadamente 100k manos con la probabilidad "ok" demuestran lo mismo que 100k manos con una mala racha brutal,usease: nada

__________________
Just be nice and fold. Please. I will never ever bluff you again. Dont make me sit here for your whole time bank. Just dont. No. No. No. I cant stand it no longer. Just fold already. FOLD. FOLD. FOLD......Phewwww.

yowi

Me encanta Poker Stars, su software y todos los torneos que ofrece. Yo sólo juego torneos, multimesa, sits, satélites, todos los palos y desde luego es una sala en la que hay de todo.

Odio Poker Stars, tengo pérdidas y más pérdidas. No consigo un resultado ni por error. Es en la única sala en que me pasa, es tremendo. Jugadores mejores que yo, habrá muchísimos, y claro, se nota, pero los badbeats que recibo en esta sala son demenciales. No consigo ganar un puñetero all-in preflop, sea 50-50, 60-40, 70-30, 80-20 o 99.99-0.01. Inverosímil

Juego torneos en más de 10 salas, y en todas gano cosicas, en unas más y en otras menos, pero voy sobreviviendo.

Me he dicho 1000 veces que no vuelvo a jugar en PS, pero como soy un hombre de ciencias y un poco cabezón y creo en las matemáticas, y pienso que alguna vez tendrá que cambiar la racha, mala suerte, juego pobre, miedo escénico, cenizo o lo que sea, pues seguiré intentándolo.

Eso sí, a ratos no puedo evitar pensar que me toman el pelo en esa sala...

Saludos

SinOuts

doble personalidad? xDDD

orensekid

que paranoia tiene la peña con ps

laurenman

No es cosa de ps, es la naturaleza humana. Si perdemos la culpa es de la sala, del vecino, de los planetas mal alineados...... en fin, tenemos excusas para dar y regalar.

__________________
http://pktpoqueril.blogspot.com/
"Los rangos se pueden apreciar con estadísticas. Pero los rangos verdaderos se obtienen con tells y con la memoria a corto a plazo."